Tuesday 21 March 2017

Blind faith in the Age of Reason

And it may be the end of us all

More from Dimitri.

Underlining and bold is my emphasis.

Intro:

"A great divide runs through the world. On one side you have people who insist that they love Jesus and that you should too, or who prostrate themselves toward of Mecca several times daily, wear a hijab and/or grow out their beards and mustaches. The bearded and mustachioed women among them generally prefer to wear a burqa instead, and who can blame them. On the other side you have those who consider themselves educated, and therefore enlightened, and who look down upon the Jesus-lovers. They generally decline to do the same for the Muslims, at least in public, out of political correctness. Instead of finding succor and solace in their faith, this latter group seeks to achieve the same effect by popping pills.

I believe that I am in a position to help bridge this gap because I have spent a lifetime on both sides of it without experiencing any cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, I am an engineer by training and had a career in high energy physics designing equipment for experiments that tried to find out whether protons decay, why there is so much more matter than antimatter in the universe, and just how precisely can we measure a certain physical constant before the project runs out of money. On the other hand, I am ordained as Reader in the Orthodox Church, know how to chant in Church Slavonic and am generally conversant with the culture and the rituals of Orthodox Christianity. In the interest of helping people understand each other better, I want to try to bridge this gap by posing and answering a few probing questions
"


Close:
"Do you believe in Santa Klaus? Silly question! Only little children believe in Santa Klaus. But then lots of people who are too old to believe in Santa Klaus nevertheless volunteer annually to become possessed by the spirit of Santa Klaus. This causes them to don red, white-trimmed outfits, paste on large fake beards, say “Ho-ho-ho!” a lot and hand out presents. They don’t believe in Santa Klaus, but they do apparently believe in his ability to make children happy. This is an important point: faith does not require spirit. Do you believe in the Post Office? If you do, what you believe in is the Post Office’s ability to deliver mail. My faith in the Post Office was sorely tested in the course of my recent book-mailing campaign.

Whatever it is you believe in, be it a spirit or a government service, you believe in its effectiveness in achieving a certain objective, be it making children happy, making adults feel better about themselves or achieving your own peace of mind, you are a believer. When the Beatitudes are read and the meek in the audience hear “Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth,” [Matthew 5:5] you may observe for yourself that the meek perk up a bit. This may lead you to believe in the ability of the spirit of Jesus to make people feel better, and a spirit that can do that is not one to turn up your nose at.


By now you may be thinking that belief in spirits may be useful after all, but then what about the use of reason? Isn’t reason the supreme human achievement, replacing many centuries of atavistic belief in spirits and things invisible? Shouldn’t all of us advanced, educated people be data-driven and rely on the scientific method?

Before I answer this question, let me add another element: belief in spirits can be viewed as an end in itself because it opens up one’s senses in unexpected ways. Here is a trivial example: if I look at a page of Church Slavonic on a web page while listening to it sung on Youtube, I can actually smell incense—an instance of synesthetic perception. But it goes much deeper than that and becomes an immersive experience. Most people are born being able to see, hear, smell, taste and touch. But with a bit of practice they can also learn to directly sense spirit—a sense that is inaccessible to the scientific method and therefore disregarded by the skeptical mind, but that is nevertheless intensely real to those who possess it.

Unscientific though this is, directly sensing spirit is very potent medicine for whatever ails you—far beyond anything science can offer. In a word, it gives people joy. But in all my years working in hard science I have never witnessed joy. Not a single scientist was seen transported with scientific rapture. On the level of emotions and sensations, the scientific pursuit is all about ambition and pride on the one hand and fear of failure and humiliation on the other, adding a bit of stress to spice up a great deal of tedium. And then there is an important irrational factor: the huge amount of ego invested in their game motivates scientists, engineers and technologists to push the only tool they have—reason—with wild abandon.


And then there are the abysmal results from exercising their reasoning faculties with wild abandon. The Age of Reason is said to have dawned around 1800, thanks to Thomas Paine. In the two centuries since then we have used reason to despoil our one and only planet so severely that species are now going extinct 1,000 to 10,000 faster than before and our own survival as a species is seriously threatened. Our vaunted reason has allowed us to create a planetary-scale machine that is blindly burning through the entire accessible store of fossilized carbon, severely disrupting the climate, and has led us to create a military machine that has destroyed country after country and that may end up killing us all. But reason is impotent in helping us shut down any of these machines.


Here we come to the crux of the matter: by now lots people around the world have little to no faith in reason left—specifically, in the ability of human reason to achieve anything other than more mindless destruction of their society and of our planetary habitat. Instead of trusting reason, they would prefer to put their faith in the spirits that have guided humanity through many millennia. Note that throughout that time we posed no existential threat to our own survival or to the planet’s ability to sustain a diversity of life. If you tell those who have become skeptical of your abilities to exercise reason that they are ignorant, uneducated, atavistic throwbacks to a primitive era, why should they listen? After all, many of the facts—which is all that you are allowed to reason with—are not on your side. And if they do listen and throw it back at you that your faith in reason is blind faith, how will you convince them otherwise?


It may well turn out that reason is an evolutionary dead end for our species and that putting all of our faith in reason is a suicidal move. Reason’s practitioners have turned out to be a bunch of sorcerer’s apprentices, setting in motion machines that they don’t know how to shut down because their reason is too feeble. Yet many of them still see it fit to opine on all the things that exist and to declare that because spirit is not a thing it therefore doesn’t matter. To an outside observer they themselves appear possessed by a certain spirit. I will leave it to you to work out what that spirit is.
"
Powerful and interesting stuff I expect that you will agree. Anyone who has been in a large football crowd will understand what he means by spirit.
And it is very difficult to argue with his point that we have been destroying the planet at an ever increasing rate since the dawn of the Age of Reason. See my last post for just one example.
More human spirit and less relentless economic, and most other forms of, "growth" seems appropriate to our current circumstances wouldn't you say?
I cheated and just gave you the intro and the punchlines. His argument builds as the article progresses.
Here is the link to the full article:

Sunday 12 March 2017

The real nuclear threat

No, it's not Donald Trump

You may be aware of the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe in Japan, it is bad bro.

3 reactors melted down after the Tsumani about 5 years ago. They are polluting, and killing, the Pacific Ocean.

The Japanese authorities do not know where the nuclear fuel is. All that they know is that it is somewhere underneath the reactors.

And that the groundwater from the nearby hills is flowing through the site and into the Pacific Ocean every day.

The radiation is so intense that a human exposed to it for 1 minute would die.

Electronic robots last a few minutes before their control systems seize up.

The problem requires an immediate technological leap forward which has not yet been forthcoming. 5 years on and no solution is in sight.

It is a human catastrophe of incalculable proportions. But the controlled main media ignores the story. Mustn't scare the sheeple.......... Scared sheeple stop spending. Can't be having that can we.........

All this is bad enough but there is an even worse threat on the horizon: Ukraine.

If you only read/watch the controlled main media then you might have the impression that those pesky Russians fucked up Ukraine. You would be totally wrong. It was the fascists in the US and EU that fucked up Ukraine. The Rooskies were in fact bemused onlookers. The Maiden coup was US funded and US run. Old George Soros, the Wests favourite oligarch, was in the thick of it as usual. The EU was complicit. And Ukraine is now a failed state as a result.

This is all easily proven if you know where to look. Don't believe me? You've swallowed all the main media bullshit? Well more fool you. I'm not going to point out the detailed sources in this post. I've got bigger fish to fry; the real nuclear threat

Here is a copy of a recent article from a Russian emigre, Dimitri Orlov. Read him carefully, his info is rock solid. My comments at the end:

"On January 26, 2017 the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board has moved up its Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to metaphorical midnight, and it now stands at just 2.5 minutes to midnight. Why did the Board decide to make this change? Essentially, “because Donald Trump.” In other news, the Board also observed that although the Paris climate accord is a good thing, the climate is pretty close to midnight as well.

These are very serious people: well-educated, professional, some Nobel Prize winners—in a word, experts. We should trust their word. But then they trust Donald Trump’s word. What gives? Apparently, none of them are experts on Donald Trump. I don’t pretend to be one either, so for the paragraph that follows let me turn it over to my old friend and resident expert on all things Trump, Captain Obvious.

“If you look at Trump’s business dealings, he has been consistently cautious and risk-averse. If you look at his political maneuverings, and glance briefly at his book, https://www.amazon.com/dp/0399594493 The Art of the Deal, you discover that his negotiating technique always involves making an extreme first offer, then seeking compromise. And if you look at his Twitter feed, you discover that he loves to troll people. Have these respected Atomic Scientists been trolled? It would certainly appear that way…”

And so I remain entirely unimpressed by the untestable hypothesis espoused by the atomic experts that Trump’s mouth is capable of moving the minute hand of the doomsday clock. But I am even less impressed by something else: the complete and utter failure of these nuclear sages to understand what the actual nuclear threat is, which is, at this moment, becoming quite extreme. For this they may perhaps be forgiven; if all they do is read and listen to Western media sources, then they would never find out anything about it. Western intelligence sources are no better, seeing as they appear to have been “hacked by the Russians.”

In fact, it would appear that the only way to get an inkling of what’s really going on… and that is to pay attention to the Russians themselves. Here are some links:
Yes, it’s all in Russian, and no, GoogleTranslate is not your friend, there being no substitute for at least six semesters of Russian.

But here—http://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-donbass-is-breaking-away-from-an-agonizing-ukraine/— you can find a good English-language update to the overall situation in the Ukraine. Unfortunately, it ignores the nuclear risk dimension. The Saker is good, but there is a big piece of the picture that is missing, so please read his article first, and then I will fill in the rather important details.

First, some background. The Ukraine inherited a very impressive energy sector from the USSR, which includes 15 nuclear reactors, huge hydroelectric installations and lots of thermal generating capacity that uses natural gas and coal. With the exception of three nuclear reactors that have been refueled by Westinghouse (with mixed results; their fuel rods tend to warp and jam, disabling the reactor) all of the Ukraine’s nuclear fuel comes from a single supplier in Russia. All of the Ukraine’s natural gas comes from Russia as well, but since Ukrainian politicians don’t want to work with Russia for nationalistic reasons, Russian gas now comes to the Ukraine from the West, and at a higher cost. Also, there isn’t enough of it. The Ukraine’s coal-fired thermal generation facilities were designed to burn Ukrainian coal—specifically, anthracite—which specifically comes from the Donbass region, which is now under separatist control.

A bit more background, and then we can move on to what the actual risk is. Electricity demand fluctuates hour to hour and day to day. Peak electricity demand is in the morning and in the evening, with higher demand during weekdays than at night or on weekends. Nuclear, hydroelectric, coal-fired and gas-fired generation facilities all differ in how well they can compensate for changes in electricity demand by ramping up and down. Hydroelectric is by far the most flexible, because sluice gates can be opened and closed in minutes, cutting turbines in and out of production. Gas is quite flexible as well, followed by coal. Nuclear is the least flexible, because nuclear fuel produces heat by breaking down along a decay chain that consists of many radioactive isotopes that decay at different rates—some fast, some slow—giving the entire system tremendous inertia. Unless a nuclear reactor is ramped up and down quite slowly, the energy output will not be directly proportional to the control input. If the operator is careless, it is possible to cause a meltdown, as happened in the Ukraine at Chernobyl in April of 1986.

Since the overthrow of the Ukrainian government in the spring of 2014, the Ukrainian economy, which hasn’t been doing well ever since the USSR fell apart, has gone into a nosedive, with double-digit annual GDP declines, turning it into a country of refugees and paupers. Until then, the Ukraine had some very impressive industrial capacity, which it inherited from the USSR, and which was wedded to Russian industry through a multitude of business relationships. When in 2014 Ukrainian nationalists seized power, they started working hard to cut these ties, and much of the industry shut down. It was this industry, working in shifts round the clock, that provided the base load of electric demand that the nuclear power plants provided for so nicely.

With the dramatic decrease in industrial activity, base load has been much reduced. With natural gas imports restricted due to the inability of the Ukrainians either to negotiate a discount with the Russians or to pay the full price for the gas they need, their ability to maneuver using gas-fired power plants has been much reduced. And with the civil war in Eastern Ukraine, the supplies of coal have been reduced too.

And now came the coup de grĂ¢ce. A small group of armed Ukrainian nationalists decide to blockade the Donbass, to make a political point. Although it should have been trivial for the Ukrainian army to remove this unauthorized group, so profound is the state of political decay there that nothing was done or even said about them. In response, the separatist authorities in the Donbass have announced a counter-blockade, and will no longer export coal to the Ukraine. They will export it to Russia instead.

Keep in mind, what the Ukrainian coal-fired plants need is not just any coal but anthracite, and the only place where they could possibly get it from is the Donbass. First, there just aren’t that many sources of anthracite left in the world. But even if the Ukraine could find a way to burn the lower grades—lignite and bituminous coal—it doesn’t have the ports to receive the imports. Remember, all of Ukrainian industrial capacity is part of the Soviet legacy, and Soviet central planners didn’t plan on any coal imports.

The result is that nuclear power is now responsible for 60% of the Ukraine’s electricity generation, while coal and gas-fired generation has plummeted by 39%. What this implies is that the nuclear reactors are being cycled up and down on a daily basis—a prescription for disaster. This is being accompanied by skyrocketing electricity rates and widespread power outages—not a situation that is conducive to social stability in a country that is already a failed state, overrun by roving gangs of heavily armed thugs. The rabidly nationalistic among them—such as those who blockaded the Donbass—may very well decide to blockade deliveries of Russian nuclear fuel, and then what?

Even before that happens, the relentless ramping up and down of the Ukraine’s remaining 15 nuclear reactors will sooner or later lead to breakdowns and quite possibly to meltdowns. How is a failed state rife with separatist sentiment (not just in the Donbass, but also in Mariupol, Odessa, Kharkov and other regions) supposed to cope with nuclear calamities in the midst of widespread power outages? Some voices in Russia are proclaiming that to avert multiple nuclear catastrophes in the heart of Europe it is essential to take the Ukraine’s nuclear installations under international control. The only ones who can actually make it happen are Russian special forces (such as the ones who just rubbed out ISIS in Palmyra). Faced with the prospect of 14 Chernobyls on its doorstep, the European Union is unlikely to object. Of course, this will bring to an end the Ukraine’s latest, and so far the longest, experiment with independence, and will spell the end of the Ukraine as a supposedly sovereign national entity.

And so this, I feel, is the greatest nuclear threat currently facing humanity. Unlike the bedandruffed professorial types who hyperventilated over Trump’s tweets and determined that it is now precisely 3.5 minutes to midnight, I am not going to set any timelines. Nor do I recommend standing idly by and watching what’s left of the Ukraine degenerate into a Somalia or a Libya with 15 Fukushimas."

Stunning stuff I am sure that you will agree. The US & EU fascists have turned Ukraine into a failed state. And the whole of humanity is threatened as a result.

But hey, never mind all that. Keep watching your TV. Keep staring at your smartphone. Keep looking at your social media. Keep your head up your ass [where the powers that be want it].

Keep being utterly distracted by mindless shite in other words. Don't worry your pretty little heads about this sort of stuff. Above all keep CONSUMING....

Finally, what about Donald Trump, Hilary Clinton, Barak Obummer, Teresa MayorMaynot, Jeremy Corbyn, Hollande, Merkel etc etc? Will any of the "democratic" puppets address this?

What do you think?


Dimitri's article is here:

http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/the-real-nuclear-threat.html

I cheated tbh. His articles are only accessible via Patreon. Minimum $1 per month which I pay. So I copied and pasted. Hopefully he will forgive me.